Bottom Conditions Score
54 / 100
Strong bottom conditions forming
Multiple bottom conditions are forming, but not yet extreme.
Bitcoin Bottom Conditions
Fear is not a Bitcoin bottom. This dashboard tracks whether BTC is entering a historical value, capitulation, and recovery zone using valuation, aggregate-derived, miner, and market-structure evidence.
A high score means historical bottom conditions are present. It does not mean the exact low is in.
- BTC price
- $63,308
- Score
- 54 / 100
- Regime
- Strong bottom conditions forming
- Last updated
- 8 Jun 2026, 11:47 UTC
Bucket Scores
The score separates valuation, capitulation, miner stress, and market structure so a single sentiment measure cannot dominate the dashboard.
Valuation
27 / 5450% filled
Tracks whether spot price and aggregate value measures are near historical long-cycle stress zones.
Market Structure
15 / 3050% filled
Tracks long-cycle trend references and drawdown conditions around prior bear-market lows.
Miner / Network Stress
12 / 1675% filled
Tracks miner revenue pressure and network stress/recovery conditions.
Scored Indicators
These indicators are computed from the latest CVL BTC bottom pipeline snapshot. The score updates automatically from the scheduled refresh.
MVRV Ratio
Compares market value to realized value. Readings below 1 indicate price below aggregate realized cost basis.
Source: CVL pipeline: Coin Metrics-derived realized-cap data
Bucket Valuation
Current 1.18 MVRV
Zones Watch1.0 <= MVRV < 1.2 BottomMVRV < 1.0
Status Watch
Points 7.5 / 15
MVRV Z-Score
Measures the deviation of market value from realized value relative to historical variation.
Source: CVL pipeline: Coin Metrics-derived realized-cap data
Bucket Valuation
Current 0.32 z-score
Zones Watch0 <= MVRV Z-Score < 1.0 BottomMVRV Z-Score < 0
Status Watch
Points 7.5 / 15
Price vs Realized Price
Tracks whether spot is near or below the aggregate realized price.
Source: CVL pipeline: Coin Metrics-derived realized-cap data
Bucket Valuation
Current 1.18x realized price
Zones Watch1.0x to 1.2x realized price BottomBelow realized price
Status Watch
Points 6 / 12
NUPL
Shows aggregate unrealized profit or loss. Low or negative readings indicate broad holder stress.
Source: CVL pipeline: Coin Metrics-derived realized-cap data
Bucket Valuation
Current 0.152
Zones Watch0 <= NUPL < 0.25 BottomNUPL < 0
Status Watch
Points 6 / 12
Mayer Multiple
Compares spot price to the 200-day moving average as a trend-discount measure.
Source: CVL pipeline: self-calculated moving averages
Bucket Market Structure
Current 0.81 Mayer
Zones Watch0.7 <= Mayer Multiple < 1.0 BottomMayer Multiple < 0.7
Status Watch
Points 6 / 12
200WMA Distance
Measures spot against the long-cycle 200-week moving average reference.
Source: CVL pipeline: self-calculated moving averages
Bucket Market Structure
Current 2.4% vs 200WMA
Zones WatchAbove 200WMA and within 10% BottomAt or below 200WMA
Status Watch
Points 5 / 10
Drawdown from ATH
Captures broad cycle dislocation relative to the prior all-time high.
Source: CVL pipeline: self-calculated market-structure metrics
Bucket Market Structure
Current -49.3%
Zones Watch-65% < drawdown <= -45% BottomDrawdown <= -65%
Status Watch
Points 4 / 8
Puell Multiple
Compares miner issuance revenue to its yearly average to identify miner revenue stress.
Source: CVL pipeline: self-calculated miner/network metrics
Bucket Miner / Network Stress
Current 0.55 Puell
Zones Watch0.5 <= Puell Multiple < 0.8 BottomPuell Multiple < 0.5
Status Watch
Points 4 / 8
Hash Ribbon Recovery
Tracks miner capitulation and recent recovery using aggregate hashrate-derived ribbons.
Source: CVL pipeline: self-calculated miner/network metrics
Bucket Miner / Network Stress
Current 15 days since recovery
Zones WatchMiner capitulation active BottomHash-ribbon recovery within 60 days
Status Hit
Points 8 / 8
Context, not confirmation
These indicators describe sentiment, attention, macro conditions, and popular floor narratives. They are useful context, but they do not confirm a bottom without valuation and capitulation evidence.
Fear & Greed Index
12 / 100Context-only sentiment measure
Sentiment stress is context-only and is excluded from the score.
Deep capitulation combo
InactiveMVRV Z-Score < 0 and Mayer Multiple < 0.7
The backtested combo is exported separately and does not control the whole dashboard score.
Best single indicator
mvrv_lt_1_0Latest backtest ranking
Loaded from the single-indicator result table when available.
Selected combo
mvrv_z_lt_0__mayer_lt_0_7Latest selected deep-capitulation rule
Loaded from recommended_minimal_combo.json when available.
Data coverage date
2026-06-07Latest feature-matrix row
The dashboard uses the latest row in btc_bottom_feature_matrix.csv.
Method note
Why this is different from Fear & Greed
Fear & Greed measures market mood. Bitcoin Bottom Conditions measures whether fear is supported by valuation, capitulation, miner stress, leverage reset, and market-structure evidence. A fearful market is not automatically a bottom. Most fearful markets are just fearful markets.
This dashboard is for research and education only. It is not financial advice, not a price prediction, and not a recommendation to buy or sell Bitcoin.