1. Define the asset claim
Start with what the token is alleged to represent: monetary premium, productive network economics, collateral utility, or governance control.
Bridging the gap between Nakamoto and Damodaran.
The Question
How should an investor evaluate scarce digital assets, productive networks, and token-governed systems without forcing them into one template?
The work begins by identifying whether an asset is best understood as a monetary good, a protocol with cash-flow-like characteristics, a collateral layer, or a contingent governance claim.
The Framework
The workflow is deliberately slow: classify the asset, identify value capture, write down assumptions, then test the range.
2. Map economic channels
Translate usage, issuance, fee flow, balance-sheet demand, and market structure into explicit model variables.
3. Stress the assumptions
Publish conditional ranges, caveats, and skeptic objections. CVL treats valuation as a research map, not a forecast.
Findings
The first output is a cleaner map of what drives the valuation debate.
Crypto assets are not one asset class
Monetary assets, settlement assets, governance claims, and application platforms require different valuation languages.
Market structure matters
Leverage, liquidity, and issuance reflexivity can distort observed prices even when a long-run valuation case is coherent.
Token holder capture is the key filter
Usage metrics are only useful when they can be translated into durable economic relevance for the token itself.
Valuation Library
The current dashboard covers four assets and treats every output as conditional research rather than a conclusion.
Bitcoin
Scenario envelope: monetary-premium sensitivity
Assumption-led valuation with explicit caveats.
Ethereum
Scenario envelope: fee capture and monetary bandwidth
Assumption-led valuation with explicit caveats.
Solana
Scenario envelope: usage density and platform durability
Assumption-led valuation with explicit caveats.
Aave
Scenario envelope: protocol earnings and governance rights
Assumption-led valuation with explicit caveats.
CVL Engine
The site exposes structure first: essays, model notes, assumptions, caveats, and source trails.
Future iterations can add live data, richer model controls, and private article tools. The current version keeps the interface lean so the research logic remains legible.
Research
Crypto Value Lab essays are published first on Substack.
No site-native essays published yet.
Start with the Substack archive.
Library Highlights
The library starts with foundational valuation work and crypto-specific research sleeves.
Investment Valuation
Core valuation text for cash flows, discount rates, growth assumptions, and intrinsic value discipline.
Baseline language for translating uncertain future economics into explicit assumptions and ranges.
Capital Asset Prices: A Theory of Market Equilibrium under Conditions of Risk
Classical CAPM framework linking expected return to systematic risk exposure.
Useful as a foil for testing whether crypto assets behave like productive assets, monetary assets, or hybrid network assets.
The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns
Empirical asset-pricing paper showing that size and book-to-market explain cross-sectional stock return variation beyond market beta.
Useful for thinking about whether crypto needs its own factor structure instead of importing equity factors mechanically.
Risks and Returns of Cryptocurrency
Documents that cryptocurrency returns differ from stocks, currencies, commodities, and common macro factors.
A core bridge between empirical asset pricing and crypto-specific return drivers such as momentum, attention, and network effects.
Research Updates
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