{ "api_version": "1.0.0", "dataset": "bitcoin-bottom-conditions", "as_of": "2026-08-28T10:35:54Z", "generated_at": "2026-08-28T10:35:54Z", "methodology_version": "2026-08-14", "canonical_url": "https://cryptovaluelab.com/api/v1/bitcoin-bottom-conditions.json", "license": "Copyright Crypto Value Lab. Public read-only access with attribution.", "disclaimer": "Research data only. Not investment advice, a trading signal, or a recommendation. Null means unavailable or not applicable, never zero.", "null_semantics": "A null value means unavailable or not applicable; it must not be interpreted as zero.", "data": { "lastUpdated": "2026-08-28T10:35:54Z", "latestDataDate": "2026-08-27", "dataCoverageDate": "2026-08-27", "btcPriceUsd": 80265.9, "score": 15.5, "totalScore": 15.5, "maxScore": 100, "scorePercent": 15.5, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "regimeLabel": "No bottom evidence", "regimeDescription": "Fear may exist, but structural bottom evidence is weak.", "deepCapitulationComboActive": false, "bestSingleIndicator": "mvrv_lt_1_0", "selectedCombo": "mvrv_z_lt_0__mayer_lt_0_7", "scoredIndicators": [ { "id": "mvrv-ratio", "name": "MVRV Ratio", "bucket": "Valuation", "weight": 15, "value": 1.5141302388161948, "displayValue": "1.51 MVRV", "currentValue": "1.51 MVRV", "status": "none", "points": 0, "watchZone": "1.0 <= MVRV < 1.2", "bottomZone": "MVRV < 1.0", "source": "CVL pipeline: Coin Metrics-derived realized-cap data", "sourceLabel": "CVL pipeline: Coin Metrics-derived realized-cap data", "sourceUrl": "", "method": "self-calculated from free aggregate data", "notes": "Compares market value to realized value. Readings below 1 indicate price below aggregate realized cost basis.", "explanation": "Compares market value to realized value. Readings below 1 indicate price below aggregate realized cost basis." }, { "id": "mvrv-z-score", "name": "MVRV Z-Score", "bucket": "Valuation", "weight": 15, "value": 0.8967525321719125, "displayValue": "0.9 z-score", "currentValue": "0.9 z-score", "status": "watch", "points": 7.5, "watchZone": "0 <= MVRV Z-Score < 1.0", "bottomZone": "MVRV Z-Score < 0", "source": "CVL pipeline: Coin Metrics-derived realized-cap data", "sourceLabel": "CVL pipeline: Coin Metrics-derived realized-cap data", "sourceUrl": "", "method": "self-calculated from free aggregate data", "notes": "Measures the deviation of market value from realized value relative to historical variation.", "explanation": "Measures the deviation of market value from realized value relative to historical variation." }, { "id": "price-realized-price", "name": "Price vs Realized Price", "bucket": "Valuation", "weight": 12, "value": 1.5141302388161948, "displayValue": "1.51x realized price", "currentValue": "1.51x realized price", "status": "none", "points": 0, "watchZone": "1.0x to 1.2x realized price", "bottomZone": "Below realized price", "source": "CVL pipeline: Coin Metrics-derived realized-cap data", "sourceLabel": "CVL pipeline: Coin Metrics-derived realized-cap data", "sourceUrl": "", "method": "self-calculated from free aggregate data", "notes": "Tracks whether spot is near or below the aggregate realized price.", "explanation": "Tracks whether spot is near or below the aggregate realized price." }, { "id": "nupl", "name": "NUPL", "bucket": "Valuation", "weight": 12, "value": 0.3395548319662128, "displayValue": "0.34", "currentValue": "0.34", "status": "none", "points": 0, "watchZone": "0 <= NUPL < 0.25", "bottomZone": "NUPL < 0", "source": "CVL pipeline: Coin Metrics-derived realized-cap data", "sourceLabel": "CVL pipeline: Coin Metrics-derived realized-cap data", "sourceUrl": "", "method": "self-calculated from free aggregate data", "notes": "Shows aggregate unrealized profit or loss. Low or negative readings indicate broad holder stress.", "explanation": "Shows aggregate unrealized profit or loss. Low or negative readings indicate broad holder stress." }, { "id": "mayer-multiple", "name": "Mayer Multiple", "bucket": "Market Structure", "weight": 12, "value": 1.1594563693399955, "displayValue": "1.16 Mayer", "currentValue": "1.16 Mayer", "status": "none", "points": 0, "watchZone": "0.7 <= Mayer Multiple < 1.0", "bottomZone": "Mayer Multiple < 0.7", "source": "CVL pipeline: self-calculated moving averages", "sourceLabel": "CVL pipeline: self-calculated moving averages", "sourceUrl": "", "method": "price-derived", "notes": "Compares spot price to the 200-day moving average as a trend-discount measure.", "explanation": "Compares spot price to the 200-day moving average as a trend-discount measure." }, { "id": "two-hundred-week-ma-distance", "name": "200WMA Distance", "bucket": "Market Structure", "weight": 10, "value": 1.246700871699194, "displayValue": "24.7% vs 200WMA", "currentValue": "24.7% vs 200WMA", "status": "none", "points": 0, "watchZone": "Above 200WMA and within 10%", "bottomZone": "At or below 200WMA", "source": "CVL pipeline: self-calculated moving averages", "sourceLabel": "CVL pipeline: self-calculated moving averages", "sourceUrl": "", "method": "price-derived", "notes": "Measures spot against the long-cycle 200-week moving average reference.", "explanation": "Measures spot against the long-cycle 200-week moving average reference." }, { "id": "drawdown-from-ath", "name": "Drawdown from ATH", "bucket": "Market Structure", "weight": 8, "value": -35.667106154296235, "displayValue": "-35.7%", "currentValue": "-35.7%", "status": "none", "points": 0, "watchZone": "-65% < drawdown <= -45%", "bottomZone": "Drawdown <= -65%", "source": "CVL pipeline: self-calculated market-structure metrics", "sourceLabel": "CVL pipeline: self-calculated market-structure metrics", "sourceUrl": "", "method": "price-derived", "notes": "Captures broad cycle dislocation relative to the prior all-time high.", "explanation": "Captures broad cycle dislocation relative to the prior all-time high." }, { "id": "puell-multiple", "name": "Puell Multiple", "bucket": "Miner / Network Stress", "weight": 8, "value": 0.9846428360880372, "displayValue": "0.98 Puell", "currentValue": "0.98 Puell", "status": "none", "points": 0, "watchZone": "0.5 <= Puell Multiple < 0.8", "bottomZone": "Puell Multiple < 0.5", "source": "CVL pipeline: self-calculated miner/network metrics", "sourceLabel": "CVL pipeline: self-calculated miner/network metrics", "sourceUrl": "", "method": "self-calculated from free aggregate data", "notes": "Compares miner issuance revenue to its yearly average to identify miner revenue stress.", "explanation": "Compares miner issuance revenue to its yearly average to identify miner revenue stress." }, { "id": "hash-ribbon-recovery", "name": "Hash Ribbon Recovery", "bucket": "Miner / Network Stress", "weight": 8, "value": 1, "displayValue": "1 days since recovery", "currentValue": "1 days since recovery", "status": "hit", "points": 8, "watchZone": "Miner capitulation active", "bottomZone": "Hash-ribbon recovery within 60 days", "source": "CVL pipeline: self-calculated miner/network metrics", "sourceLabel": "CVL pipeline: self-calculated miner/network metrics", "sourceUrl": "", "method": "self-calculated from free aggregate data", "notes": "Tracks miner capitulation and recent recovery using aggregate hashrate-derived ribbons.", "explanation": "Tracks miner capitulation and recent recovery using aggregate hashrate-derived ribbons." } ], "bucketScores": [ { "bucket": "Valuation", "points": 7.5, "earnedPoints": 7.5, "maxPoints": 54, "percent": 13.88888888888889 }, { "bucket": "Market Structure", "points": 0, "earnedPoints": 0, "maxPoints": 30, "percent": 0 }, { "bucket": "Miner / Network Stress", "points": 8, "earnedPoints": 8, "maxPoints": 16, "percent": 50 } ], "contextIndicators": [ { "id": "fear-greed", "name": "Fear & Greed Index", "value": 71, "displayValue": "71 / 100", "currentValue": "71 / 100", "interpretation": "Context-only sentiment measure", "method": "context-only", "explanation": "Fear alone does not confirm a bottom and is excluded from the score." }, { "id": "deep-capitulation-combo", "name": "Deep capitulation combo", "value": false, "displayValue": "Inactive", "currentValue": "Inactive", "interpretation": "MVRV Z-Score < 0 and Mayer Multiple < 0.7", "method": "context-only", "explanation": "The backtested combo is exported separately and does not control the whole dashboard score." }, { "id": "best-single-indicator", "name": "Best single indicator", "value": "mvrv_lt_1_0", "displayValue": "mvrv_lt_1_0", "currentValue": "mvrv_lt_1_0", "interpretation": "Latest backtest ranking", "method": "context-only", "explanation": "Loaded from the single-indicator result table when available." }, { "id": "selected-combo", "name": "Selected combo", "value": "mvrv_z_lt_0__mayer_lt_0_7", "displayValue": "mvrv_z_lt_0__mayer_lt_0_7", "currentValue": "mvrv_z_lt_0__mayer_lt_0_7", "interpretation": "Latest selected deep-capitulation rule", "method": "context-only", "explanation": "Loaded from recommended_minimal_combo.json when available." }, { "id": "data-coverage-date", "name": "Data coverage date", "value": "2026-08-27", "displayValue": "2026-08-27", "currentValue": "2026-08-27", "interpretation": "Latest feature-matrix row", "method": "context-only", "explanation": "The dashboard uses the latest row in btc_bottom_feature_matrix.csv." } ], "limitations": [ "Research-only dashboard snapshot; not financial advice, not a price prediction, and not a recommendation to buy or sell Bitcoin.", "Fear & Greed is context-only until a tested model shows robust out-of-sample value from adding it to the score.", "The score is based on aggregate-derived and price-derived indicators from the latest feature row, not manual chart reads.", "Raw UTXO-derived metrics are deferred because the current build-versus-source decision does not justify a custom indexer for v1." ], "missingIndicators": [], "scoreHistory": 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"date": "2017-08-25", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 4390.99, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": "2017-08-26", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 4351.75, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": "2017-08-27", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 4338.46, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": "2017-08-28", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 4387.83, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": "2017-08-29", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 4590.17, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": "2017-08-30", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 4579.75, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": "2017-08-31", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 4737.27, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": "2017-09-01", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 4919.9, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 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"date": "2017-09-18", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 4091.5, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": "2017-09-19", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 3911, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": "2017-09-20", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 3863.1, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": "2017-09-21", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 3623.9, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": "2017-09-22", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 3606.8, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": "2017-09-23", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 3789, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": "2017-09-24", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 3672.7, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": "2017-09-25", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 3924, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": "2017-09-26", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 3885.9, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": "2017-09-27", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 4213.8, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": "2017-09-28", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 4190, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": "2017-09-29", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 4157.1, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": "2017-09-30", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 4344, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": "2017-10-01", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 4383.7, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": "2017-10-02", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 4401.7, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": "2017-10-03", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 4309, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": "2017-10-04", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 4223.6, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": "2017-10-05", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 4324.2, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": "2017-10-06", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 4363.1, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": "2017-10-07", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 4432, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": "2017-10-08", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 4592, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": "2017-10-09", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 4772.1, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": "2017-10-10", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 4748.5, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": "2017-10-11", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 4822.6, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": "2017-10-12", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 5429.7, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": "2017-10-13", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 5640, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": "2017-10-14", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 5800, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": "2017-10-15", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 5680, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": "2017-10-16", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 5738.8, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": "2017-10-17", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 5606.5, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": "2017-10-18", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 5579.4, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": "2017-10-19", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 5695.3, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": "2017-10-20", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 5999, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": "2017-10-21", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 6043, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": "2017-10-22", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 5997.6, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": "2017-10-23", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 5902.8, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": "2017-10-24", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 5545.5, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": "2017-10-25", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 5762.8, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": "2017-10-26", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 5890.6, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": "2017-10-27", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 5793.8, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": "2017-10-28", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 5750, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": "2017-10-29", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 6130, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": "2017-10-30", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 6124.5, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": "2017-10-31", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 6430.5, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": "2017-11-01", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 6741.9, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": "2017-11-02", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 7007.3, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": "2017-11-03", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 7160, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": "2017-11-04", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 7369.9, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": "2017-11-05", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 7380, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": "2017-11-06", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 6969, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": "2017-11-07", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 7128.1, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": "2017-11-08", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 7463.5, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": "2017-11-09", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 7152.4, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": "2017-11-10", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 6583, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": "2017-11-11", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 6330, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": "2017-11-12", "score": 0, "btcPriceUsd": 5880, "regime": "No bottom evidence", "hitCount": 0, "watchCount": 0 }, { "date": 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